Murch: Case of good news/bad news for unemployment rate
Steve MurchWith all good news, it seems like there has to be some bad news. Such is the case with state unemployment rates.
The good news is that unemployment rates in Michigan changed slightly from August to September. In most markets, including Northeast Michigan, unemployment ticked downward. Northeast Michigan saw its unemployment drop from 14.3 to 14.2 percent, according to the Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth.
The bad news? Well, it's two-fold. First, the unemployment rate for September 2009 was nearly 5 percent higher than September 2008. The second half of the equation is we're heading into the months where unemployment traditionally begins to climb now that tourism in Michigan will begin to subside. In the current economy that trend is likely to continue in 2009.
"In a year marked with high unemployment, September was a relatively calm month for Michigan's regional labor markets." Rick Waclawek, director of the Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives stated in a press release Thursday. "Typical seasonal patterns dominated the changes taking place this month."
Eleven of the 17 markets had their unemployment rates drop, which is great news. And 15 of the 17 markets had a plus or minus of just three-tenths of a percent. Unfortunately, the largest labor market in the state - Metro Detroit - went up 0.3 percent. In fact, the Detroit market is 8.4 percent higher than last year.
The 11-county Northeast Lower Michigan market is defined as Alcona, Alpena, Cheboygan, Crawford, Iosco, Montmorency, Ogemaw, Oscoda, Otsego, Presque Isle and Roscommon counties. All but two of the counties are in the bottom half of the state's rates. Only five of the counties are above the state seasonally unadjusted average of 14.8 percent. That's because Metro Detroit's rate is 17.3 percent and two of those counties are in the bottom seven.
The best county rate in Northeast Michigan is Cheboygan (8.6), which was the third best in the state. After that, Ogemaw's 12.7 percent at No. 30 is the region's best. The rest of the region is: Crawford (No. 42 at 13.7), Alpena (No. 48 at 13.9), Roscommon (No. 52 at 14.6), Otsego (No. 53 at 14.7), Presque Isle (No. 64 at 16.0), Iosco No. 68 at 16.4), Alcona (No. 70 at 16.7), Montmorency (No 80 at 18.9) and Oscoda (No. 82 at 19.1). Image walking down the street and passing 100 people. By the law of averages, in Oscoda County you would who have passed 19 unemployed people.
If you have any doubts about why the economy is in the tank, those numbers are sobering and they're better than they were the month before. According to the DELEG, Northeast Lower Michigan had 400 fewer unemployed people in September than in August. There were 13,800 unemployed in August and 13,400 in September. Again, that's significantly worse that September 2008 when 9,100 people were jobless.
Those numbers are skewed slightly because you're not looking at the same base workforce. There were 95,800 people in the civilian workforce in September 2008, while there were only 94,400 people in the September 2009 workforce.
There's no way to really know what happened to the other 1,400 workers. Some may have moved, some retired (though in this economy those folks were probably very few) and some may have just plain given up on looking for employment. The change in workforce always happens because no market is stagnant.
But for a comparison, let's keep the same workforce from 2008 and use it against the 2009 work numbers. By doing this, it lowers the unemployment rate to 14 percent. That would be an additional two-tenths of a percent drop in the rate. Unfortunately we can't use that number and that's only half the story again.
While 400 fewer people were unemployed, the total number of people employed dropped by 1,700 people from August to September, and 2009 was 5,800 fewer people than 2008. About the only real conclusion we can draw from it and it is dangerous to draw conclusions in a down economy is that the workforce is smaller because people are moving away from the area.
No matter how you slice it, the numbers aren't good and we know they aren't likely to improve before the end of the year. It doesn't look like it's going to be much of a holiday season, which can only translate into another year of mediocre holiday sales for local retailers.
Let's hope for some sort of unexpected rebound or a little improve at the least.


