ALPENA — It seems almost unthinkable that Northeast Michigan could be in a severe drought during the heart of winter, but that is the case.

On Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor released its latest update on drought throughout the U.S. and classified all of Alpena and Alcona counties as D2, which is severe drought.

A large swath of Montmorency and Presque Isle counties share the same designation, but some areas are noted as being classified as D1, which is considered moderate drought.

The National Weather Service says that, if the drought remains, it could impact agriculture and water levels of the lakes, rivers, and creaks in the region and could increase the risk of wildfires in the spring and summer.

Harold Dippman, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Gaylord, says the local drought conditions began to appear late last summer and unseasonably warm weather through the fall and early winter only made matters worse.

He said the current weather pattern and storm track makes it unlikely the region will get significant snow for the next several weeks at least.

Dippman said the current storm track is stuck in the middle of the country and causing snow in states as far south as Texas. He said that, if the storm track shifted farther north, northern Michigan would likely receive the stormy Alberta Clipper systems that accumulate snow, which would help ease the ongoing drought.

Right now, though, forecasters see little indication the storm track is ready to drift back north, and it is possible the storm track could push even farther south as some of the winter’s coldest air is expected to drop down into northern Michigan over the next 10 days.

Dippman said that, if the current climate trend continues and significant snow continues to escape the Alpena area, there will be consequences later in the year.

“Well, a lack of snow and rain dries out the soil, and that can impact the farmers and dry out vegetation, which can lead to fires,” he said. “It could also impact the water tables, and we could see water levels in the lakes and other bodies of water drop, which can impact fishing and other recreation.”

Dippman said that, last January, two large snowstorms provided a lot of water, but things began to change in February as unseasonably warm weather quickly thawed the snow and dried up the ground.

He said the Alpena area received significant amounts of rain in the spring and early summer, but, come August, hot and dry conditions began to absorb the moisture from earlier in the year and the current drought began.

Dippman said the weather remained warm and dry through November, which only enhanced the drought.

The cold temperatures currently forecasted could help the ongoing drought, Dippman said.

He said that, if the Great Lakes, inland lakes, and large rivers freeze over, that limits evaporation and the water levels and moisture will remain.

If warm temperatures return after the expected cold spell, then the evaporation process will continue and the drought could linger.

“Right now, there is a lot working against northern Michigan, making it tough to get significant snowfall or to have the Great Lakes freeze completely over,” Dippman said. “In recent winters, we have seen record-low ice coverage of the Great Lakes, and, because of that, the water levels have dropped.”

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Lake Huron was about 10% frozen as of Jan. 9, below the long-term average of 20% for the same date.

On Jan. 1, only about 2% of Lake Huron had frozen, so ice is being produced quickly.

For the five Great Lakes, only 7.75% of the lake water is frozen.

Lake Huron usually reaches its peak ice coverage between the middle of February and early March, before it begins to thaw rapidly.

Steve Schulwitz can be reached at 989-358-5689 or sschulwitz@TheAlpenaNews.com. Follow him on X @ss_alpenanews.com.